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A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis

Dodds, PE; Ekins, P; (2014) A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy , 39 (26) 13941 - 13953. 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.06.128. Green open access

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Abstract

There has recently been a concerted effort to commence a transition to fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in Europe. A coalition of companies released an influential McKinsey-coordinated report in 2010, which concluded that FCVs are ready for commercial deployment. Public–private H2Mobility programmes have subsequently been established across Europe to develop business cases for the introduction of FCVs. In this paper, we examine the conclusions of these studies from an energy systems perspective, using the UK as a case study. Other UK energy system studies have identified only a minor role for FCVs, after 2030, but we reconcile these views by showing that the differences are primarily driven by different data assumptions rather than methodological differences. Some energy system models do not start a transition to FCVs until around 2040 as they do not account for the time normally taken for the diffusion of new powertrains. We show that applying dynamic growth constraints to the UK MARKAL energy system model more realistically represents insights from innovation theory. We conclude that the optimum deployment of FCVs, from an energy systems perspective, is broadly in line with the roadmap developed by UK H2Mobility and that a transition needs to commence soon if FCVs are to become widespread by 2050.

Type: Article
Title: A portfolio of powertrains for the UK: An energy systems analysis
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.06.128
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.06.128
Language: English
Additional information: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Powertrain, Energy systems, UK MARKAL, Total cost of ownership, National policy
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1450439
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