UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves

Ioannou, I; Douglas, J; Rossetto, T; (2015) Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves. SOIL DYNAMICS AND EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING , 69 83 - 92. 10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.024. Green open access

[img] PDF
1-s2.0-S0267726114002267-main.pdf

Download (2MB)

Abstract

Empirical fragility curves, constructed from databases of thousands of building-damage observations, are commonly used for earthquake risk assessments, particularly in Europe and Japan, where building stocks are often difficult to model analytically (e.g. old masonry structures or timber dwellings). Curves from different studies, however, display considerable differences, which lead to high uncertainty in the assessed seismic risk. One potential reason for this dispersion is the almost universal neglect of the spatial variability in ground motions and the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction. In this paper, databases of building damage are simulated using ground-motion fields that take account of spatial variability and a known fragility curve. These databases are then inverted, applying a standard approach for the derivation of empirical fragility curves, and the difference with the known curve is studied. A parametric analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of various assumptions on the results. By this approach, it is concluded that ground-motion variability leads to flatter fragility curves and that the epistemic uncertainty in the ground-motion prediction equation used can have a dramatic impact on the derived curves. Without dense ground-motion recording networks in the epicentral area empirical curves will remain highly uncertain. Moreover, the use of aggregated damage observations appears to substantially increase uncertainty in the empirical fragility assessment. In contrast, the use of limited randomly-chosen un-aggregated samples in the affected area can result in good predictions of fragility.

Type: Article
Title: Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.024
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.024
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Keywords: Earthquake risk evaluation, Ground-motion fields, Empirical fragility curves, Spatial correlation, Kriging, Monte Carlo
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1449627
Downloads since deposit
129Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item