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Exploring possible transition pathways for hydrogen energy: A hybrid approach using socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling

McDowall, W; (2014) Exploring possible transition pathways for hydrogen energy: A hybrid approach using socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling. FUTURES , 63 1 - 14. 10.1016/j.futures.2014.07.004. Green open access

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Abstract

Hydrogen remains an important option for long-term decarbonisation of energy and transport systems. However, studying the possible transition paths and development prospects for a hydrogen energy system is challenging. The long-term nature of technological transitions inevitably means profound uncertainties, diverging perspectives and contested priorities. Both modelling approaches and narrative storyline scenarios are widely used to explore the possible future of hydrogen energy, but each approach has shortcomings. This paper presents a hybrid approach to assessing hydrogen transitions in the UK, by confronting qualitative socio-technical scenarios with quantitative energy systems modelling, through a process of ‘dialogue’ between scenario and model. Three possible transition pathways are explored, each exploring different uncertainties and possible decision points. Conclusions are drawn for both the future of hydrogen, and on the value of an approach that brings quantitative formal models and narrative scenario techniques into dialogue.

Type: Article
Title: Exploring possible transition pathways for hydrogen energy: A hybrid approach using socio-technical scenarios and energy system modelling
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2014.07.004
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.07.004
Additional information: © 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Keywords: Socio-technical scenarios, Energy system modelling, Hydrogen energy, Exploratory scenarios
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1447670
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