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Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study

Moreno-Peral, P; Luna, JDED; Marston, L; King, M; Nazareth, I; Motrico, E; GildeGómez-Barragán, MJ; ... Bellón, JÁ; + view all (2014) Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study. PLoS One , 9 (9) , Article e106370. 10.1371/journal.pone.0106370. Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: There are no risk algorithms for the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care. We aimed to develop and validate internally a risk algorithm to predict the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months. METHODS: A prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the risk algorithm. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety, panic and other non-specific anxiety syndromes as measured by the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders, Patient Health Questionnaire (PRIME-MD-PHQ). We recruited 3,564 adult primary care attendees without anxiety syndromes from 174 family physicians and 32 health centers in 6 Spanish provinces. RESULTS: The cumulative 12-month incidence of anxiety syndromes was 12.2%. The predictA-Spain risk algorithm included the following predictors of anxiety syndromes: province; sex (female); younger age; taking medicines for anxiety, depression or stress; worse physical and mental quality of life (SF-12); dissatisfaction with paid and unpaid work; perception of financial strain; and the interactions sex*age, sex*perception of financial strain, and age*dissatisfaction with paid work. The C-index was 0.80 (95% confidence interval=0.78-0.83) and the Hedges' g=1.17 (95% confidence interval=1.04-1.29). The Copas shrinkage factor was 0.98 and calibration plots showed an accurate goodness of fit. CONCLUSIONS: The predictA-Spain risk algorithm is valid to predict anxiety syndromes at 12 months. Although external validation is required, the predictA-Spain is available for use as a predictive tool in the prevention of anxiety syndromes in primary care.

Type: Article
Title: Predicting the onset of anxiety syndromes at 12 months in primary care attendees. The predictA-Spain study
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0106370
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0106370
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2014 Moreno-Peral et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Adult, Aged, Anxiety Disorders, Cohort Studies, Depressive Disorder, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Logistic Models, Male, Middle Aged, Primary Health Care, Quality of Life, Risk Factors, Spain, Stress, Psychological
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Division of Psychiatry
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Primary Care and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1447327
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