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Why Are Travel Demand Forecasts So Often Wrong and Does It Matter?

Mackett, RL; (1998) Why Are Travel Demand Forecasts So Often Wrong and Does It Matter? In: Proceedings of the 30th UTSG Annual Conference 1998. UTSG: Ireland: Dublin. Green open access

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Abstract

The theme of this paper is the examination of the quality of the outputs from the travel demand modelling process. Three topics are considered: the British national road traffic forecasts, local traffic forecasts, and forecasts used in the development of new urban public transport systems. Examples are taken from Great Britain and the United States. The forecasts are generally poor, and those that are good may be more due to coincidence that modelling skill. A number of reasons for the poor quality of the forecasts are put forward and some suggestions for improvement made.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Why Are Travel Demand Forecasts So Often Wrong and Does It Matter?
Event: 30th UTSG Annual Conference 1998
Dates: January 1998
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://utsg.net/archives/1994-1998
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/144591
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