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Local online kernel ridge regression for forecasting of urban travel times

Haworth, J; Cheng, T; Shawe-Taylor, J; Wang, J; (2014) Local online kernel ridge regression for forecasting of urban travel times. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies , 46 151 - 178. 10.1016/j.trc.2014.05.015. Green open access

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Abstract

Accurate and reliable forecasting of traffic variables is one of the primary functions of Intelligent Transportation Systems. Reliable systems that are able to forecast traffic conditions accurately, multiple time steps into the future, are required for advanced traveller information systems. However, traffic forecasting is a difficult task because of the nonlinear and nonstationary properties of traffic series. Traditional linear models are incapable of modelling such properties, and typically perform poorly, particularly when conditions differ from the norm. Machine learning approaches such as artificial neural networks, nonparametric regression and kernel methods (KMs) have often been shown to outperform linear models in the literature. A bottleneck of the latter approach is that the information pertaining to all previous traffic states must be contained within the kernel, but the computational complexity of KMs usually scales cubically with the number of data points in the kernel. In this paper, a novel kernel-based machine learning (ML) algorithm is developed, namely the local online kernel ridge regression (LOKRR) model. Exploiting the observation that traffic data exhibits strong cyclic patterns characterised by rush hour traffic, LOKRR makes use of local kernels with varying parameters that are defined around each time point. This approach has 3 advantages over the standard single kernel approach: (1) It allows parameters to vary by time of day, capturing the time varying distribution of traffic data; (2) It allows smaller kernels to be defined that contain only the relevant traffic patterns, and; (3) It is online, allowing new traffic data to be incorporated as it arrives. The model is applied to the forecasting of travel times on London's road network, and is found to outperform three benchmark models in forecasting up to 1. h ahead. © 2014 The Authors.

Type: Article
Title: Local online kernel ridge regression for forecasting of urban travel times
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2014.05.015
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.05.015
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1432409
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