UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks

Davies, TP; Bishop, SR; (2013) Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks. Crime Science , 2 (1) , Article 10. 10.1186/2193-7680-2-10. Green open access

[thumbnail of Davies and Bishop - 2013 - Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks.pdf]
Preview
PDF
Davies and Bishop - 2013 - Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks.pdf

Download (1MB)

Abstract

A fundamental issue in crime prevention is the efficient deployment of resources and the effective targeting of interventions, both of which require some form of prediction of future crime. One crime for which this is feasible is burglary, the distinctive spatio-temporal signatures of which can be exploited to inform predictions. Mathematical models in particular are capable of both encoding concisely the theoretical foundations of criminal behaviour and allowing the quantitative analysis of specific scenarios, and their capacity to reproduce the general patterns of burglary suggests that the approach has considerable potential. Previous models, however, are situated on simplified representations of space and do not reflect realistically the built environment in which crime takes place; specifically, they do not incorporate urban street networks. Such networks are fundamental to situational theories of crime, in the sense that they determine the configuration of urban space and, therefore, shape those human activity patterns which are thought to give rise to crime. Furthermore, streets are the natural domain for many policing activities, and their structure is determined by planning decisions, so that insight into their relationship with crime is likely to be of immediate practical use. With this in mind, this paper presents a mathematical model of crime which is explicitly situated on a street network. After discussing theoretical considerations and specifying the model itself, examples of typical networks are explored.

Type: Article
Title: Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1186/2193-7680-2-10
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2193-7680-2-10
Language: English
Additional information: © 2013 Davies and Bishop; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Burglary, Street network, Applied mathematics, Modelling
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Mathematics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1428863
Downloads since deposit
160Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item