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Evaluation of model validation techniques in land cover dynamics

Ahmed, B; Ahmed, R; Zhu, X; (2013) Evaluation of model validation techniques in land cover dynamics. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information , 2 (3) 577 - 597. 10.3390/ijgi2030577. Green open access

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Abstract

This paper applies different methods of map comparison to quantify the characteristics of three different land change models. The land change models used for simulation are termed as “Stochastic Markov (St_Markov)”, “Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov)” and “Multi Layer Perceptron Markov (MLP_Markov)” models. Various model validation techniques such as per category method, kappa statistics, components of agreement and disagreement, three map comparison and fuzzy methods have then been applied. A comparative analysis of the validation techniques has also been discussed. In all cases, it is found that “MLP_Markov” gives the best results among the three modeling techniques. Fuzzy set theory is the method that seems best able to distinguish areas of minor spatial errors from major spatial errors. Based on the outcome of this paper, it is recommended that scientists should try to use the Kappa, three map comparison and fuzzy methods for model validation. This paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of model validation techniques and articulates priorities for future research.

Type: Article
Title: Evaluation of model validation techniques in land cover dynamics
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3390/ijgi2030577
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi2030577
Language: English
Additional information: © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Keywords: Model validation, Map comparison, Land cover change, Kappa, fuzzy, Markov chain, Cellular automata, Artificial neural network, Three map comparison
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1418949
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