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Reading the Tea Leaves: Medvedev's Presidency through Political Rhetoric of Federal and Sub-National Actors

Baturo, A; Mikhaylov, S; (2014) Reading the Tea Leaves: Medvedev's Presidency through Political Rhetoric of Federal and Sub-National Actors. Europe-Asia Studies , 66 (6) pp. 969-992. 10.1080/09668136.2014.926716. Green open access

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Abstract

In the absence of public information on the inner workings of the Russian political regime, especially during Medvedev's presidency, outside observers often have to rely on politicians' unguarded comments or subjective analysis. Instead, we turn to quantitative text analysis of political rhetoric. Treating governors as a quasi-expert panel, we argue that policy positions revealed in regional legislative addresses explain how elites perceived the distribution of power between Putin and Medvedev. We find that governors moved from a neutral position in 2009 to a clearly pro-Putin position in 2011, and that policy initiatives advocated by Medvedev all but evaporated from the rhetoric of governors in 2012.

Type: Article
Title: Reading the Tea Leaves: Medvedev's Presidency through Political Rhetoric of Federal and Sub-National Actors
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2014.926716
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.926716
Language: English
Additional information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Europe-Asia Studies on 21 July 2014, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/09668136.2014.926716.
Keywords: social sciences, area studies, economics, political science, business & economics, government & law, area studies, economics, political science, party regimes, texts, Russia, leadership, positions, democracy, pitfalls, elite
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1411606
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