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A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation

Glynn, L; (2011) A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science , 62 (2) pp. 343-392. 10.1093/bjps/axq015. Green open access

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Abstract

The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naïve intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses.

Type: Article
Title: A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/bjps/axq015
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axq015
Language: English
Additional information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science following peer review. The version of record, Glynn, L; (2011) A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 62 (2) pp. 343-392, is available online at: http://dx/doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axq015.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Dept of Philosophy
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1406966
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