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A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime

Ashby, MPJ; Bowers, KJ; (2013) A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime. Crime Science , 2 (1) 10.1186/2193-7680-2-1. Green open access

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Abstract

Objectives: To test the accuracy of various methods previously proposed (and one new method) to estimate offence times where the actual time of the event is not known. Methods: For 303 thefts of pedal cycles from railway stations, the actual offence time was determined from closed-circuit television and the resulting temporal distribution compared against commonly-used estimated distributions using circular statistics and analysis of residuals. Results: Aoristic analysis and allocation of a random time to each offence allow accurate estimation of peak offence times. Commonly-used deterministic methods were found to be inaccurate and to produce misleading results. Conclusions: It is important that analysts use the most accurate methods for temporal distribution approximation to ensure any resource decisions made on the basis of peak times are reliable.

Type: Article
Title: A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1186/2193-7680-2-1
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2193-7680-2-1
Language: English
Additional information: © 2013 Ashby and Bowers; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Temporal crime analysis; Aoristic analysis; Temporal accuracy; Peak offence times
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1397882
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