Ashby, MPJ;
Bowers, KJ;
(2013)
A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime.
Crime Science
, 2
(1)
10.1186/2193-7680-2-1.
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Abstract
Objectives: To test the accuracy of various methods previously proposed (and one new method) to estimate offence times where the actual time of the event is not known. Methods: For 303 thefts of pedal cycles from railway stations, the actual offence time was determined from closed-circuit television and the resulting temporal distribution compared against commonly-used estimated distributions using circular statistics and analysis of residuals. Results: Aoristic analysis and allocation of a random time to each offence allow accurate estimation of peak offence times. Commonly-used deterministic methods were found to be inaccurate and to produce misleading results. Conclusions: It is important that analysts use the most accurate methods for temporal distribution approximation to ensure any resource decisions made on the basis of peak times are reliable.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/2193-7680-2-1 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2193-7680-2-1 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2013 Ashby and Bowers; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | Temporal crime analysis; Aoristic analysis; Temporal accuracy; Peak offence times |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1397882 |
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