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Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary

Pitcher, AB; Johnson, SD; (2011) Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary. J RES CRIME DELINQ , 48 (1) 83 - 109. 10.1177/0022427810384139. Green open access

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Abstract

Research concerned with burglary indicates that it is clustered not only at places but also in time. Some homes are victimized repeatedly, and the risk to neighbors of victimized homes is temporarily elevated. The latter type of burglary is referred to as a near repeat. Two theories have been proposed to explain observed patterns. The boost hypothesis states that risk is elevated following an event reflecting offender foraging activity. The flag hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests that time-stable variation in risk provides an explanation where data for populations with different risks are analyzed in the aggregate. To examine this, the authors specify a series of discrete mathematical models of urban residential burglary and examine their outcomes using stochastic agent-based simulations. Results suggest that variation in risk alone cannot explain patterns of exact and near repeats, but that models which also include a boost component show good qualitative agreement with published findings.

Type: Article
Title: Exploring Theories of Victimization Using a Mathematical Model of Burglary
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0022427810384139
Keywords: burglary, mathematical model, repeat victimization, boost hypothesis, risk heterogeneity, agent-based simulation, MULTIPLE VICTIMIZATION, REPEAT, CRIME, PATTERNS, STABILITY, DYNAMICS, BEHAVIOR, OFFENDER, PLACES
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1302477
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