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Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China

Xie, Y; Batty, M; Zhao, K; (2005) Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China. (CASA Working Papers 95). UCL (University College London), Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (UCL): London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

We propose that the emergent phenomenon know as ?desakota?, the rapidurbanization of densely populated rural populations in the newlydeveloped world, particularly China, can be simulated using agent-basedmodels which combine both local and global features. We argue thatdeskota represents a surprising and unusual form of urbanization wellmatchedto processes of land development that are driven from the bottomup but moderated by the higher-level macro economy. We develop asimple logic which links local household reform to global urban reform,translating these ideas into a model structure which reflects these twoscales. Our model first determines the rate of growth of different spatialaggregates using linear statistical analysis. It then allocates this growth tothe local level using developer agents who determine the transformation ormutation of rural households to urban pursuits based on local land costs,accessibilities, and growth management practices. The model is applied todesakota development in the Suzhou region between 1990 and 2000. Weshow how the global rates of change predicted at the township level in theWuxian City region surrounding Suzhou are tempered by localtransformations of rural to urban land uses which we predict using cellularautomata rules. The model, which is implemented in the RePast 3software, is validated using a blend of data taken from remote sensing andgovernment statistical sources. It represents an example of generativesocial science that fuses plausible behavior with formalized logics matchedagainst empirical evidence, essential in showing how novel patterns ofurbanization such as desakota emerge.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Additional information: Imported via OAI, 7:29:01 4th Nov 2005
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1267
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