Wang, Minghao; Zhang, Chi; Lin, Borong; Kang, Jian; Qin, Yuchen; Xu, Shen; (2025) Optimal urban morphology design to enhance summer outdoor thermal comfort and reduce cooling energy use: Synergistic impact analysis of multiple parameters. Sustainable Cities and Society , 135 , Article 106996. 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106996.

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Abstract

Different urban morphological parameters exert a synergistic impact on both outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) and building use intensity (EUI). However, previous studies have predominantly investigated individual morphological parameter in isolation, providing limited insight into their interactive relationships under complex urban and climatic conditions, thereby constraining the effectiveness of morphology-driven urban design optimization. This study employs the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to investigate how multiple urban morphological parameters synergistic affect summer OTC and cooling EUI in residential areas. Subsequently, an RSM-based stacked ensemble model is developed to predict outdoor thermal comfort autonomy (OTCA) and EUI. This surrogate model is further integrated with the NSGA-II to identify optimal morphological parameters that balance thermal comfort and energy efficiency. Key findings include:(1) In Wuhan’s residential areas, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in summer ranges from 24 °C to 48 °C, and daily cooling EUI varies between 260 and 300 Wh/m². Morphological variation has a more pronounced effect on outdoor thermal comfort than on energy use. (2) Except for the interaction between building density and floor area ratio, most parameter combinations exhibit significant synergistic effects on both OTCA and EUI. (3) The RSM-Stacking models, validated against data from real residential areas, achieved prediction R2 values of 0.89 for OTCA and 0.76 for EUI, demonstrating strong predictive accuracy and generalizability. (4) Optimal urban morphology in Wuhan features high density, high floor area ratio, tall buildings, and compact footprints. The green plot ratio has a greater impact on both OTCA and EUI than the green ratio, highlighting the importance of green space quality over quantity. This study provides a quantitative and integrative framework to unravel the interactions between urban morphology and microclimate, offering practical guidance for climate-adaptive and energy-efficient urban design.

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