Lee, Yuna; (2025) Evolution of Strategic Foresight and Policy Making: A Comparative Evaluation of British and American Strategies for National Emergency Crises. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented academic discipline that supports organisations in navigating uncertainty towards desirable futures. It focuses on identifying the most suitable driving forces and solutions prior to the formulation of strategies to address future opportunities and threats. Grounded in systematic analysis and anticipatory thinking, this approach serves as a decision-support tool, enabling nations to secure new forms of competitiveness and formulate long-term policy perspectives. Academic interest in the future and the formal study of foresight gathered pace following the 1929 Great Depression, amid a growing belief that the crisis might have been avoided with better anticipation and planning. In both the UK and the US, the end of the Second World War and the emergence of nuclear weapons spurred the growth of foresight research, particularly in national reconstruction and security strategy. Economists such as William Beveridge, with his 1942 post-war plan, and scientific initiatives like RAND’s 1948 military planning programme, played leading roles. Despite incorporating foresight into its policy-making framework since the 20th century, the UK still faces significant challenges in addressing long-term issues effectively. Accordingly, this study seeks to propose a new conceptual framework and process model necessary to bridge the gap between theory and practice in the UK Government’s strategic foresight approach. To this end, the research employs a comparative case study approach focused on the United Kingdom and the United States. Data were gathered and validated through semi-structured interviews with policymakers, practitioners, and international experts, alongside a detailed analysis of key policy documents. The inclusion of the US case explores whether its decentralised foresight model—particularly its integration of areas such as defence and security—can help address the constraints of the UK’s traditionally centralised Westminster system. While both models have their respective strengths and limitations, the study considers whether the US approach offers greater policy flexibility, enhanced collaboration, and more inclusive, adaptive design. Ultimately, the study demonstrates the value of strategic foresight in public policy and proposes a refined, future- oriented framework tailored to the UK Government. It aims to contribute academically and practically, offering actionable models for long-term, sustainable foresight initiatives. It also examines how persistent implementation barriers may be overcome through evolving practice and the development of resilient, adaptive governance frameworks.

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