Zhand, Sepehr; (2025) Non-linear Urban Growth Dynamics: An analytical, spatial network-based assessment of the Metropolitan area of Tehran and its relationship with underlying social, economic and political processes. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

Text Non-linear Urban Growth Dynamics - PhD Thesis - S Zhand.pdf - Accepted Version Access restricted to UCL open access staff until 1 December 2026. Download (34MB)

Abstract

This research investigates urban growth dynamics using a spatial network model to explore how interactions between bottom-up growth and top-down planning shape spatial patterns and types. It begins by referring to the paradox of intensified informal growth as an unintended consequence of development planning, thereby situating a critical discussion on how the interaction between these drivers shapes trajectories of urban transformation and emerging spatial typologies. The research is grounded in space syntax theory, which posits a reciprocal relationship between spatial configuration and social structure, suggesting that insights into one can illuminate the other. Accordingly, the study investigates spatial typologies as the outcome of dynamic interactions between population growth and regulatory frameworks. While central planning establishes a structural basis for urban development, the findings underscore its limitations, revealing heterogeneous growth patterns and varied spatial arrangements that emerge even under ostensibly uniform planning regimes. This variability highlights the inherent complexities of urbanization and the constraints of centralized approaches in addressing its multifaceted nature. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines quantitative modelling with qualitative reasoning to model the city as a spatial network, analysing the interplay between spatial organization, spatial morphology, planning policies, and socio-political factors. This approach highlights the complex interdependencies between spatial organization and socio-political dynamics shaped by numerous, non-linear parameters. By examining these dynamics, the study bridges a gap in conventional urban planning discourse, with a tendency of direct classification and explanations for urban conditions and instead suggests that the emergent types shape a spectrum of conditions that accommodate the diverse social groups. A key contribution of this research is the development of a lightweight analytical predictive tool generating a disparity index with a certain precision and minimal reliance on formal datasets. By anchoring its findings in empirical analysis of material urban spaces, the study advances an evidence-based understanding of urban complexity. It concludes that while planning provides a critical starting point for urban transformation, its outcomes are ultimately contingent upon the interplay between formal strategies and emergent, often unpredictable dynamics. This work makes a significant contribution to urban development discourse, highlighting some limitations of conventional planning frameworks and offering ways in which the complex process of growth and development can be better understood and maintained.

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