Biesbroek, Robbert;
Haasnoot, Marjolijn;
Mach, Katharine J;
Petersen, Arthur C;
(2025)
Adaptation planning in the context of a weakening and possibly collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
Regional Environmental Change
, 25
(3)
, Article 93. 10.1007/s10113-025-02434-5.
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Abstract
Climate scientists have raised concerns about the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) or even its potential collapse in the future. Their messages should not hinder urgent adaptation to climate risks; rather, they underscore the growing need for adaptive planning across a range of possible futures, including high-impact, low-likelihood AMOC scenarios. There are five ways to consider the consequences of AMOC weakening or collapse in adaptation planning: (1) broaden the set of future adaptation scenarios considered; (2) develop adaptation pathways beyond the most likely range of possible outcomes; (3) create robustness and redundancy in adaptation portfolios; (4) expand the solution space, attuned to path dependencies and their implications; and (5) monitor emerging, weak signals of AMOC changes to inform adaptation planning. We argue that closer collaboration between climate scientists and the adaptation planning community is needed to generate timely, policy-relevant insights that can guide proactive and effective adaptation action.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Adaptation planning in the context of a weakening and possibly collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10113-025-02434-5 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02434-5 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | AMOC, Adaptation, Tipping point, Pathways |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > STEaPP |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10210728 |
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