Šimaitis, Joris;
Lupton, Rick;
Vagg, Christopher;
Butnar, Isabela;
Sacchi, Romain;
Allen, Stephen;
(2025)
Battery electric vehicles show the lowest carbon footprints among passenger cars across 1.5-3.0 °C energy decarbonisation pathways.
Communications Earth & Environment
, 6
(1)
, Article 476. 10.1038/s43247-025-02447-2.
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Abstract
Passenger car carbon footprints are highly sensitive to future energy systems, a factor often overlooked in life cycle assessment. We use a time-dependent prospective life cycle assessment to enhance carbon footprints under four 1.5-3.0 °C decarbonisation pathways for electricity, fuel, and hydrogen from an energy-based integrated assessment model. Across 5000 comparative cases, battery electric vehicles consistently have the lowest carbon footprints compared to hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell vehicles. For example, battery electric vehicles show an average 32 to 47% lower footprint than hybrid combustion in 3.0 °C and 1.5 °C climate-compatible futures, respectively. This is driven by greater projected decarbonisation of electricity compared to fossil-dominated fuels and hydrogen. Battery electric vehicles meaningfully retain their advantage for mileages over 100,000 km, even in regions with carbon-intensive electricity since these are anticipated to decarbonise the most. Although our study supports battery electric vehicles as the most reliable climate-mitigation option for passenger cars, reducing their high manufacturing footprint remains important.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Battery electric vehicles show the lowest carbon footprints among passenger cars across 1.5-3.0 °C energy decarbonisation pathways |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s43247-025-02447-2 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02447-2 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2025 Springer Nature Limited. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Climate-change mitigation, Environmental impact |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10210389 |
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