Brownhall, Indigo; Kaffine, Daniel; Lifson, Miles; Bhattarai, Santosh; Stevenson, Emma; Lemmens, Stijn; Letizia, Francesca; (2025) Understanding the effect of fiscal interventions on the future space debris environment. In: Proceedings of the 9th European Conference on Space Debris. (pp. pp. 1-13). ESA Space Debris Office

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Abstract

For decades, there has been more space debris in orbit than operational satellites. In recent years, however, the use of space has changed dramatically. Launch rates are now approximately 20 times higher than they were two decades ago, when the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) published its widely adopted Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines. Despite this growth in activity, the adoption of debris mitigation measures has not kept pace. As a result, there is increasing pressure across the space community to strengthen regulations and explore new mitigation strategies. This study takes a transdisciplinary approach—drawing from economics and the social sciences as well as engineering—to evaluate whether fiscal interventions can support the long-term sustainability of space. We assess the effectiveness of a Post-Mission Disposal (PMD) bond in reducing space debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), using an integrated assessment framework that integrates the Orbital Debris Propagators Unified with Economic Systems (OPUS) model and a source-sink debris model (MOCAT-pySSEM). Over a 25-year simulation, we apply active-lifetime bonds ranging from $100k to $800k per satellite, under both 5-year and 25-year PMD rules. Results are also compared to an Orbital Use Fee policy, similar to a tax. Our findings show that even the smallest bond ($100k) reduces derelicts by 10.7% relative to a no-policy baseline, with bonds above $300k achieving reductions of up to 18.6%. However, we find that applying a bond under a 25-year PMD rule is less effective. In this scenario, operators tend to comply by disposing at 520 km—a naturally compliant orbit—but atmospheric drag at this altitude is insufficient to remove derelicts quickly, resulting in debris buildup. In contrast, under a 5-year PMD rule, disposal at 400 km allows debris to be naturally cleared due to stronger atmospheric drag, preventing long-term congestion. The results demonstrate that a PMD bond is an effective tool for improving compliance, especially for nonnaturally compliant orbits where current compliance levels are around 65%. Notably, even small bond amounts significantly improve behaviour. At the highest bond level ($800k), compliance reaches levels that create a cleaner orbital environment, reducing collision risk and drives more launches than a no-policy scenario. This is an encouraging outcome, suggesting that a well-designed bond can enhance sustainability without stifling innovation or access to space.

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