Melekh, Yaroslav;
Salmon, Katrina;
Dixon, James;
Grubb, Michael;
(2025)
European Natural Gas through the 2020s: the decade of extremes, contradictions and continuing uncertainties.
(UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, Energy Market Series, Working paper
7).
UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources: London, UK.
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Abstract
The European gas system has entered a structurally volatile phase defined by post energy crisis over build, dislocated demand trajectories, and a decoupling mandate under REPowerEU. This paper interrogates the contradictions between fossil lock-in through LNG import capacity andovercontracting, and policy-driven demand reduction. The EU’s pivot to flexible LNG procurementexposes pricing to global volatility, while decarbonisation hinges on electrification, demand-sideretrofits and hydrogen feasibility—each encumbered by cost, infrastructure lag, and political friction.We assess Europe's gas outlook through the decade’s residual volatility, policy ambivalence, andthe emerging global LNG oversupply regime — a clash with geopolitical energy security imperatives, domestic backlashes against capital-intensive green technologies and market inertia. We argue that Europe’s energy system now operates in a zone of structural ambiguity—where security, sovereignty, economy and climate ambition remain deeply entangled, but as yet far fromoperationally aligned.
| Type: | Working / discussion paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | European Natural Gas through the 2020s: the decade of extremes, contradictions and continuing uncertainties |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/environment-energy-... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10208448 |
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