Kanger, Laur; Ghosh, Bipashyee; Entsalo, Hanna; (2025) Integrated framework of intervention points and transformative outcomes for single- and multi-system transitions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change , 216 , Article 124146. 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124146.

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Abstract

Interactions between studies on transformative innovation policy and sustainability transitions have lately generated a rich stream of work on steering system innovation. Yet the tools to understand, formulate and evaluate transformative innovation policy have so far mostly focused on single systems. This is problematic as addressing the current sustainability challenges requires transitions in a broad range of interconnected systems, and the policy assessment tools developed for single systems may not sufficiently capture multi-system phenomena. In this paper we seek to address this limitation by synthesising two frameworks for policy mapping and evaluation: intervention points and transformative outcomes. Drawing on recent literature on multi-system dynamics, transition justice, rebound effects, planetary boundaries and resilience, the article proposes an integrated framework of 8 intervention points and 16 related transformative outcomes for steering single- and multi-system transitions. In order to show the added value of the new framework, we reanalyse an existing case of Finnish circular economy policy. We also discuss how the framework might be employed in various innovation policy evaluation exercises.

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