Cockcroft, Jasmine; (2025) Predictors of Key Stage 3 Science Attainment. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

This research explored the predictors of science attainment at Key Stage 3; the first period of serious school science study. Existing research has established a likely role for several predictors of science attainment, but most studies include a subset of possible predictors making it difficult to assess their relative impact. Few use outcome measures that are typical of school science exams. There is no standardised assessment approach since levels were scrapped in 2015/2016. Assessments were developed that captured the know ledge and ‘Working Scientifically’ specified in the National Curriculum, informed by science assessment frameworks used in education and research. A range of predictors were se lected; language and literacy measures, socioeconomic status, and cognitive predictors (executive function, processing speed, spatial ability) as well as KS2 prior attainment. The EF measures were inhibition, shifting and updating. Data collection was conducted over three consecutive years, including two year groups in both year 7 and year 8 and one in year 8 only. The correlations were very similar across the 5 groups, indicating reliable data. Inhibition and shifting were not correlated with science. Regression analysis indicated that reading age and scientific vocabulary were the strongest predictors over prior attainment. Without prior attainment, updating was a significant predictor but with much of its effects acting through reading age, for which it is a strong predictor. Reading age mediated the effect of socioeconomic status on science attainment. Spatial ability contributed to sci ence attainment over and above reading age, socioeconomic status and prior attainment in year 8. Without prior attainment in the model, updating and spatial ability were significant in both year groups. Inverse efficiency was significant in year 7 but not year 8, possibly as it improves over this time. Improving reading age and scientific vocabulary are strong candidates for closing the disadvantage gap in science education.

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