Molina Hutt, Carlos;
Vahanvaty, Taikhum;
Kourehpaz, Pouria;
(2022)
An analytical framework to assess earthquake-induced downtime and model recovery of buildings.
Earthquake Spectra
, 38
(2)
pp. 1283-1320.
10.1177/87552930211060856.
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Abstract
While modern seismic design codes intend to ensure life-safety in extreme earthquakes, policy-makers are moving toward performance objectives stated in terms of acceptable recovery times. This article describes a framework to probabilistically model the post-earthquake recovery of buildings and provide quantitative seismic performance measures, expressed in terms of downtime, that are useful for decision-making. Downtime estimates include the time for mobilizing resources after an earthquake and conduct necessary repairs. The proposed framework advances the well-established Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) P-58 and Resilience-based Earthquake Design initiative (REDi) methodologies by modeling temporal building recovery trajectories to target recovery states, such as stability, shelter-in-place, reoccupancy, and functional recovery. The shelter-in-place recovery state accounts for relaxed post-earthquake habitability standards, in contrast with the reoccupancy recovery state that relates to pre-event habitability criteria. Analogous to safety-based codes, which specify a threshold for the probability of collapse under a given ground motion shaking intensity, this framework permits evaluating the probability of a building not achieving a target recovery state, for example, shelter-in-place, immediately after an earthquake, or, alternatively, the probability of achieving a target recovery state, for example, functional recovery, within a specified time frame. The proposed framework is implemented to evaluate a modern 12-story residential reinforced concrete shear wall building in Seattle, WA. The assessment results indicate that under a functional-level earthquake (roughly equivalent to ground motion shaking with a return period of 475 years), the probability of not achieving shelter-in-place immediately after the earthquake is 22%, and the probability of downtime to functional recovery exceeding 4 months is 88%, which far exceeds acceptable thresholds suggested in the 2015 National Earthquake Hazards Reductions Program (NEHRP) guidelines and FEMA P-2090.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | An analytical framework to assess earthquake-induced downtime and model recovery of buildings |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1177/87552930211060856 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211060856 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
| Keywords: | Earthquake-induced downtime, building recovery, rapidity, robustness, shelter-inplace, functional recovery |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10204719 |
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