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Methods for Generating Publicly Releasable Modeling Inputs to Support Development of Reference Space Environment Scenarios

Lifson, Miles; (2024) Methods for Generating Publicly Releasable Modeling Inputs to Support Development of Reference Space Environment Scenarios. In: IAF Space Operations Symposium. (pp. pp. 351-371). International Astronautical Federation (IAF) Green open access

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Abstract

The proliferation of LEO spacecraft operations over the last several years has simultaneously broadened the set of space stakeholders and imposed additional challenges for ensuring space sustainability. Environmental modelling tools have the potential to help operators, space stakeholders, and regulators develop policy positions and pursue evidencebased decision making and practices. At the same time, a lack of agreement on what constitutes plausible futures results in divergent narratives about expected future environmental trends and weakens public and regulatory understanding of the connection between various short to medium-term actions and long-term environmental consequences. In nonspace domains, the development of consensus community reference scenarios has supported improved integrated modelling; model and metric comparability and verification; the design and implementation of public policy initiatives; and effective public communication. This paper describes initial efforts to develop a set of indicative reference scenarios for evolutionary space environment modelling, supported by publicly releasable model inputs suitable for use with a variety of modelling tools and approaches. It is argued that the identification of reference scenarios is a helpful prerequisite for adaptive space governance approaches and could help accelerate the transition of technical and governance metrics to policy and regulatory use. Developing consensus about potential reference scenarios will also help stakeholders develop comfort with comparing the performance of potential capacity metrics under different futures. This paper focuses on proposed methodologies for generating major modelling inputs including the initial object population, future launch models, behavioural assumptions, and atmospheric inputs. Each of these inputs are chosen to be transparent, plausible, and avoid the use of any controlled information. Of particular note is the creation of a development status approach to constellation launch modelling that relies on pseudo-objective criteria to estimate and reflect the probability of deployment of proposed large constellations

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Methods for Generating Publicly Releasable Modeling Inputs to Support Development of Reference Space Environment Scenarios
Event: IAF Space Operations Symposium, Held at the 75th International Astronautical Congress (IAC 2024)
Dates: 14 Oct 2024 - 18 Oct 2024
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.52202/078367-0038
Publisher version: https://iafastro.directory/iac/paper/id/86437/summ...
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Space Environment, Space Sustainability, Space Debris, Evolutionary Modelling, Integrated Assessment Modelling
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10204296
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