Sun, Xinlu; (2025) Equal transitions towards carbon neutrality. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Achieving carbon neutrality across the globe is essential to curb climate change within the acceptable scale. Equal transitions towards carbon neutrality are vital in this process. On the one hand, achieving just and equal transitions needs mitigating the risks of unequal outcomes from the low-carbon transition and to prevent the poor and vulnerable from being disproportionately impacted. On the other hand, policies should enhance the well-being and rights of the poor while pursuing social, economic, and technological reforms to reduce global inequality. Nonetheless, achieving both carbon neutrality and inequality reduction is challenging, as these objectives can conflict with each other. For example, reducing inequality in human development may be associated with additional energy demand and carbon emissions, and the economic cost of carbon abatement may overburden the poor. Integrating inequality perspectives into policies for carbon neutrality achievement requires understanding the interaction between carbon neutrality goals and inequality reduction. Despite consensus on justice and equity principles in climate negotiations, effective actions are hindered by limited knowledge on achieving equitable transitions. Current understandings focus narrowly on job opportunities and impacts on carbon-intensive sectors. While literature explores pathways to carbon neutrality or strategies to reduce inequality, few studies offer insights into equitable transitions towards carbon neutrality. Articles on equal transitions often rely on qualitative analysis; quantitative investigations into multidimensional inequality and the effects of decarbonization policies can provide better insights into how to ensure justice while achieving low carbon transitions. In this thesis, I quantitatively investigate the multiscale inequality, discuss the interact between inequality reduction and carbon abatement, and assess the benefits of incorporating equity issues in target setting. The research is hence conducted by answering four questions. First, what are the current status and changing trends of multidimensional carbon inequality? Second, what is the impact on the achievement of carbon neutrality caused by inequality reduction? Third, does carbon abatement policy in one country cause inequality across other nations? Forth, how will integrating equity issues in setting climate targets affect achievement of global carbon neutrality? The study investigating these research questions consists of four parts: 1) assessing the recent trend of household carbon inequality and the impact of poverty eradication on climate targets (Chapter 3); 2) investigating carbon footprint inequality across global cities by establishing a hybrid method integrating top-down input–output analysis and bottom-up crowdsourced data to estimate city carbon footprints (Chapter 4); 3) evaluating the effectiveness of a carbon pricing scheme, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and its impact on global inequality (Chapter 5); 4) quantifying the benefits of setting consumption-based carbon neutrality targets in global combat against climate change (Chapter 6). The results show that poverty eradication does not jeopardize the overall achievement of carbon neutrality, taking China as an example. However, poor regions are encountered with more carbon emissions associated with life condition improvement. At the city level, I found growing inequality in carbon footprint across global cities, and cities with low- or medium human development indices have difficulty in decoupling human well-being enhancement and carbon emissions. As a policy proposed to reduce carbon leakage risks, the CBAM is found to be ineffective, and the economic costs are distributed unevenly among developed and developing countries. Due to the unequal impacts of such unilateral measurements and the potential trade retaliation triggered, I propose the setting of consumption-based net zero targets to reduce carbon emissions embodied in international trade. The results indicate that consumption-based target setting can speed up achievement of carbon neutrality globally by averagely five years in advance. The findings in this thesis provide insights into the development of policies that support equitable transitions toward carbon neutrality. Less developed regions face a greater climate burden due to poverty eradication efforts potentially offsetting carbon reduction efforts, and enhancing human well-being without increasing carbon emissions is challenging in cities with low and medium subnational human development indices. To address this, efficient measures should be taken to reduce the carbon intensity of consumption in wealthier cities/regions. Interregional collaboration is essential to coordinate inequality reduction with investments in low-carbon development across the globe, and intercity climate collaboration can assist poorer cities in achieving sustainable development, thereby balancing economic growth with carbon reduction. In addition, the effectiveness of unilateral trade policies in reducing carbon leakage is questionable. Climate change mitigation should be pursued within the framework of international cooperation. It is accordingly recommended to adopt consumption-based climate targets. This approach can better motivate action and foster international collaboration to reduce emissions associated with consumption. By focusing on consumption-based targets, countries can address emissions more comprehensively and equitably.

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