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Simulation-based sensitivity analysis of energy performance applied to an old Beijing residential neighbourhood for retrofit strategy optimisation with climate change prediction

Deng, Yingqi; Zhou, Yinan; Wang, Hong; Xu, Chen; Wang, Weixiang; Zhou, Tiantian; Liu, Xuan; ... Yu, Diran; + view all (2023) Simulation-based sensitivity analysis of energy performance applied to an old Beijing residential neighbourhood for retrofit strategy optimisation with climate change prediction. Energy and Buildings , 294 , Article 113284. 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113284. Green open access

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Abstract

Due to the high energy consumption in the building sector and the ever-increasing urbanisation rate, the demand for retrofitting old buildings in urban areas is increasing in China, especially in metropolitan cities like Beijing. However, despite national and local policies calling for extensive building retrofitting, it is a challenge to determine a cost-effective retrofit strategy. Considering this, the study establishes a novel approach that analyses the sensitivity of building energy consumption on parameters defining the materials used on the building envelope, as well as the solar shading and airtightness of the building. This research builds EnergyPlus models using geometric data captured from the map, building fabric data from local design standards, and a set of varying activity schedules, and carries out simulations to calculate the building energy consumption of a residential neighbourhood in Beijing, China. The energy consumption data is then used for a sensitivity analysis using the Morris Method on 14 building envelope parameters in total. For different building shapes, the sensitivity analysis results highlight that the energy is most sensitive to infiltration, followed by window U-value and window SHGC. The solar absorptances and U-values of external walls and roofs are also found to have a moderate influence on total energy consumption. By using predicted weather files, this research further discusses the changing influences of these parameters considering climate change over the next few decades. The approach of this research is instructive for the analysis of buildings in other cities in cold climate regions due to the generalisability of the studied neighbourhood, and the result has the potential to inform the building management teams and policymakers to determine suitable retrofit strategies.

Type: Article
Title: Simulation-based sensitivity analysis of energy performance applied to an old Beijing residential neighbourhood for retrofit strategy optimisation with climate change prediction
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113284
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113284
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Sensitivity analysis, Climate change prediction, Building retrofitting, Morris Method, Energy simulation
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10199383
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