Guerrero, Juan Carlos; (2024) Modelling and dynamic assessment of space project cost and schedule performance: Simulation and review of policy implications using system dynamics. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The size of the UK space industry was around £16.5 billion in 2019/20. Like complex projects in other sectors, space projects frequently exceed cost and schedule performance targets. Reasons often cited include excessive optimism at the start of projects, political interference, technology development challenges such as design flaws and rework, work content changes, and integration issues. For example, a major space project delivered by NASA has an average of 27.6% cost overrun and 13 months delay relative to the original schedule; employees and consultant workforce rework were among the most critical factors influencing delay. This study examines the critical success factors of space projects and identifies vital components causing failures. These key components serve as foundation information to build a conceptual system model that analyses the space project implementation and cause-effect relationships. In addition, the study constructs a dynamic, graph-based operational System Dynamics model that can simulate the project delivery to explore the different behaviours under different policy change settings. The principal method used in this research is system dynamics. It employs a graphical notation that combines qualitative and quantitative data. Causal loop models and stock and flow models are used to represent qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. The research involves designing the qualitative factors within the study's scope through a literature review and surveys with experts in the field. This helps in developing elaborate diagrams of causality to gain an in-depth understanding of the variables and causes that impact the performance of space projects. The quantitative data obtained is then analysed using simulation models. These models capture the complex behaviour of the systems under study. They are utilised to demonstrate the impact of various issues related to space projects. Additionally, the simulation models serve as a laboratory for policy formulation and testing. By evaluating the performance and behaviour of different model variables, policymakers can assess the effectiveness of proposed policies. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the changes that arise from the delivery of a space project. This understanding can guide decision-makers and administrators in the space industry for planning and strategic purposes. By incorporating the insights gained from the research, industry professionals can make informed decisions regarding the planning, execution, and management of space projects, thus improving overall performance and outcomes.

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