Metcalfe, Chloë Alexia; (2024) Future-proofing mammal conservation in the face of climate and land-use change. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

We are currently witnessing very rapid biodiversity changes, unprecedented in recent history, driven primarily by climate and land-use changes. Conserving biodiversity is crucial for ensuring ecosystem services and maintaining habitat that is resilient to anthropogenic pressures. There are many tools at our disposal to address these challenges, such as the use of protected areas, increasing climate and habitat connectivity, as well as implementing habitat restoration to create suitable habitats for native plant and animal species. It is a combination of approaches that will best prepare us for a future rich in biodiversity. The aims of my thesis are to explore how protected-area characteristics, such as their design, management and size, impact local mammal biodiversity at a global scale, as well as to highlight where best to focus conservation efforts in order to conserve mammal species richness, including through the restoration of natural habitats. I find that there are 11% more mammal species on average in local samples of biodiversity inside protected areas compared to areas without protection. I also show that a greater availability of natural habitats increases total mammal abundance, and that total mammal abundance increases with increased distance inside the border of a protected area. Furthermore, I identify areas that do not contain enough contiguous habitat that is large enough to support the continued survival of mammal species under future climate conditions. These areas are projected to be within future climatically suitable patches, and so may need to be the focus of conservation efforts to expand the area of suitable habitat, and conserve levels of mammal biodiversity. I also explore how hypothetical restoration can increase the land available to support mammal conservation, highlighting areas in South and Central America, Western and Eastern Africa, Eastern and Southeast Asia, as well as large parts of Europe as restoration priorities. These restoration priorities were identified by considering habitat suitability, future climatic suitability and taking into account the minimum area requirements of species. My thesis demonstrates the significance of enhancing the protection of natural habitat, the importance of incorporating climate change together with habitat suitability and species-specific minimum area requirements in future projections of species distributions, as well as where can be considered as hypothetical restoration priorities. Local research can be undertaken to assess the feasibility of these hypothetical restoration areas. As species ranges are projected to significantly change in the face of climate, by using projections of where mammals will be in the year 2070, we can ensure that decisions made for the current environment will foster long-lasting, positive biodiversity outcomes. This research contributes to the understanding of what characteristics are most important for protected areas, and where should be considered as global priorities for conservation and restoration of habitats.

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