Yilmaz, Ferhat;
(2024)
Climate Change Adaptation in Türkiye: The Case of Drought and Its Management Now and in Future.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Earth's climate is changing. A main concern is more frequent and severe extreme events, such as drought. Managing drought is often done through inappropriate and inadequate management, which indicates a need for adaptive management of drought, especially true for Türkiye and other countries bordering the Mediterranean. This study proposes a management approach for Türkiye to combat drought by analysing international water management approaches in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. It emphasises strengthening climate observations and modelling and draws on information about how water resources have changed over recent years through a case study of Istanbul. Relying presently on a few modelling exercises and management plans, Türkiye needs a more detailed view of drought and climate change. In the Netherlands, drought is managed as part of a complex water management system rather than being treated separately. UK water companies develop drought plans to monitor and manage future droughts with supportive hydrological summaries and water resource situation reports. The main USA approach is monitoring and early warning, such as the U.S. Drought Portal. Observations, including the first-time transcription of Ottoman weather records from the mid-19th century in Istanbul and ERA5 outputs, revealed changes in the eastern Mediterranean region's climate over the past century. Future changes in temperature and precipitation were projected using the Multi-Model Mean of CMIP6 models, incorporating model selection and bias correction processes, and drought analysis was conducted using the SPI and SDI. The findings indicate that drought is likely to become an increasingly significant problem for Türkiye. A DPSIR analysis of water use revealed various issues that needed to be incorporated into water management. In many cultures, drought is viewed as a natural tragedy and even referred to as divine intervention. The evidence suggests that human intervention is the driver. This study is being conducted to address the issues related to drought management, and its use could lead to more adaptive management of drought.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Climate Change Adaptation in Türkiye: The Case of Drought and Its Management Now and in Future |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10198127 |
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