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Risk of Bowel Obstruction in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for High-risk Colon Cancer: A Nested Case-control-matched Analysis of an International, Multicenter, Randomized Controlled Trial (FOxTROT)

Glasbey, J; Beggs, A; Glimelius, B; Gray, R; Handley, K; Laurberg, S; Magill, L; ... Furniss, D; + view all (2024) Risk of Bowel Obstruction in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for High-risk Colon Cancer: A Nested Case-control-matched Analysis of an International, Multicenter, Randomized Controlled Trial (FOxTROT). Annals of Surgery , 280 (2) pp. 283-293. 10.1097/SLA.0000000000006145. Green open access

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify risk criteria available before the point of treatment initiation that can be used to stratify the risk of obstruction in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for high-risk colon cancer. BACKGROUND: Global implementation of NAC for colon cancer, informed by the FOxTROT trial, may increase the risk of bowel obstruction. METHODS: A case-control study, nested within an international randomized controlled trial (FOxTROT; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00647530). Patients with high-risk operable colon cancer (radiologically staged T3-4 N0-2 M0) that were randomized to NAC and developed large bowel obstruction were identified. First, clinical outcomes were compared between patients receiving NAC in FOxTROT who did and did not develop obstruction. Second, obstructed patients (cases) were age-matched and sex-matched with patients who did not develop obstruction (controls) in a 1:3 ratio using random sampling. Bayesian conditional mixed-effects logistic regression modeling was used to explore clinical, radiologic, and pathologic features associated with obstruction. The absolute risk of obstruction based on the presence or absence of risk criteria was estimated for all patients receiving NAC. RESULTS: Of 1053 patients randomized in FOxTROT, 699 received NAC, of whom 30 (4.3%) developed obstruction. Patients underwent care in European hospitals including 88 UK, 7 Danish, and 3 Swedish centers. There was more open surgery (65.4% vs 38.0%, P=0.01) and a higher pR1 rate in obstructed patients (12.0% vs 3.8%, P=0.004), but otherwise comparable postoperative outcomes. In the case-control–matched Bayesian model, 2 independent risk criteria were identified: (1) obstructing disease on endoscopy and/or being unable to pass through the tumor [adjusted odds ratio: 9.09, 95% credible interval: 2.34–39.66] and stricturing disease on radiology or endoscopy (odds ratio: 7.18, 95% CI: 1.84–32.34). Three risk groups were defined according to the presence or absence of these criteria: 63.4% (443/698) of patients were at very low risk (<1%), 30.7% (214/698) at low risk (<10%), and 5.9% (41/698) at high risk (>10%). CONCLUSIONS: Safe selection for NAC for colon cancer can be informed by using 2 features that are available before treatment initiation and identifying a small number of patients with a high risk of preoperative obstruction.

Type: Article
Title: Risk of Bowel Obstruction in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for High-risk Colon Cancer: A Nested Case-control-matched Analysis of an International, Multicenter, Randomized Controlled Trial (FOxTROT)
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000006145
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1097/SLA.0000000000006145
Language: English
Additional information: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywords: Humans, Male, Female, Colonic Neoplasms, Neoadjuvant Therapy, Case-Control Studies, Middle Aged, Intestinal Obstruction, Aged, Risk Assessment, Chemotherapy, Adjuvant, Risk Factors, Neoplasm Staging
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Cancer Institute
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Cancer Institute > Research Department of Pathology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Department of Imaging
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10196618
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