Mille, Jonathan; (2024) Interconnections and interdependencies in risk management in a climate change and energy transition context. A systemic methodology applied to the energy-mining-water nexus in the northern region of Chile. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Climate change and the energy transition are intertwined long-term challenges that could unfold in a chaotic and uncertain manner. Human systems are dependent on environmental conditions as well as energy supply to grow. A change in one or both parameters will mechanically affect the stability of current human systems. Beyond the structural impact that these changes would have on these systems, all risk management and risk reduction strategies are also affected. Indeed, these strategies are also dependent on environmental conditions and energy supply to function at all stages of risk management (before, during, and after the impact of an extreme event). Therefore, not only do risk management strategies need to consider the changing climate-related hazards and environmental degradation, but they must also take into consideration new potential systemic vulnerabilities linked to a change in the energy industry and supply in the near future. There is a crucial need to communicate on climate change and the energy transition as well as the dynamics and uncertainties surrounding these phenomena to empower current public institutions, private sectors, and risk managers to adapt critical lifeline services and supply chains to mitigate the spread of systemic risks. Communicating needs and dependencies at a system level is proving challenging, given the complexity of the interconnections and interdependencies between human and natural systems. This research proposes a methodology for 1) explaining the key challenges human systems are now facing, 2) identifying the key needs of human systems and the infrastructures associated with them, 3) understanding the connections between these infrastructures using a systems visualisation tool, and 4) integrating different exposures from various hazards. After a conceptual section, this research takes the example of the Energy-Mining-Water nexus in the northern region of Chile to test this methodology.

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