Hassannezhad, M;
Farahany, B;
Barzegar, F;
(2022)
Virtual Net Propagator: A cloud-based computational tool for systemic decision propagation analysis.
Expert Systems with Applications
, 191
, Article 116338. 10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116338.
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Abstract
Today's organizations are witnessing a growing complexity in making interconnected decisions. Where individuals have a wider range of decisions to influence, the consequence of decisions far more propagate across the system, and the business environment continually influences the status of the system. Predicting the cascading effects of decisions in such situations would be very problematic yet can have several implications for managers and executives to think beyond organizational silos and make local decision with a bigger picture of emergent consequences in mind. A prominent challenge within this realm is the ever-increasing complexity of decision propagations, especially when incorporating the role and influence of people involved in decision-making. This paper tackles this challenge from an engineering change perspective, with the focus on computing the compound risk of decisions when their consequences concurrently propagate across the system. We introduce an interactive tool called Virtual Net Propagator, which incorporates organizational dynamics into decision analysis, with the aim to identify change opportunities and effective set of interventions. Illustrated by a field engineering case study, it is demonstrated that the proposed tool can provide detailed knowledge on how decisions are interconnected and how systemic (cascading) effects of a decision propagate through causal pathways, so highlighting key influencers along with role and influence of interfacing (hidden) players.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Virtual Net Propagator: A cloud-based computational tool for systemic decision propagation analysis |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116338 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116338 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Change propagation, Complex networks, Computational intelligence, Systems design and analysis, Socio-technical systems, Web-based decision support system |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Space and Climate Physics |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10194431 |
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