Da Silva Filipe, Ana;
Shepherd, James G;
Williams, Thomas;
Hughes, Joseph;
Aranday-Cortes, Elihu;
Asamaphan, Patawee;
Ashraf, Shirin;
... Thomson, Emma C; + view all
(2021)
Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 from mainland Europe into Scotland.
Nature Microbiology
, 6
pp. 112-122.
10.1038/s41564-020-00838-z.
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Scotland on 1 March 2020. During the first month of the outbreak, 2,641 cases of COVID-19 led to 1,832 hospital admissions, 207 intensive care admissions and 126 deaths. We aimed to identify the source and number of introductions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into Scotland using a combined phylogenetic and epidemiological approach. Sequencing of 1,314 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from available patient samples enabled us to estimate that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced to Scotland on at least 283 occasions during February and March 2020. Epidemiological analysis confirmed that early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 originated from mainland Europe (the majority from Italy and Spain). We identified subsequent early outbreaks in the community, within healthcare facilities and at an international conference. Community transmission occurred after 2 March, 3 weeks before control measures were introduced. Earlier travel restrictions or quarantine measures, both locally and internationally, would have reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in Scotland. The risk of multiple reintroduction events in future waves of infection remains high in the absence of population immunity.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 from mainland Europe into Scotland |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41564-020-00838-z |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-00838-z |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > Genetics and Genomic Medicine Dept |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10193840 |
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