Stubbs, Gareth;
Friston, Karl;
(2024)
The police hunch: the Bayesian brain, active inference, and the free energy principle in action.
Frontiers in Psychology
, 15
, Article 1368265. 10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1368265.
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Abstract
In the realm of law enforcement, the “police hunch” has long been a mysterious but crucial aspect of decision-making. Drawing on the developing framework of Active Inference from cognitive science, this theoretical article examines the genesis, mechanics, and implications of the police hunch. It argues that hunches – often vital in high-stakes situations – should not be described as mere intuitions, but as intricate products of our mind’s generative models. These models, shaped by observations of the social world and assimilated and enacted through active inference, seek to reduce surprise and make hunches an indispensable tool for officers, in exactly the same way that hypotheses are indispensable for scientists. However, the predictive validity of hunches is influenced by a range of factors, including experience and bias, thus warranting critical examination of their reliability. This article not only explores the formation of police hunches but also provides practical insights for officers and researchers on how to harness the power of active inference to fully understand policing decisions and subsequently explore new avenues for future research.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The police hunch: the Bayesian brain, active inference, and the free energy principle in action |
| Location: | Switzerland |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1368265 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1368265 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2024 Stubbs and Friston. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
| Keywords: | active inference, Bayesian brain, intuition, policing, decision making, suspicion, free energy principle (FEP) |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > UCL Queen Square Institute of Neurology > Imaging Neuroscience |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10190271 |
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