Salman, Nadine L.;
(2024)
Assessing the assessors: human decision-making and reliability in violent extremism risk assessment and management.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
The risk assessment and management of individuals is an integral part of strategies to counter and prevent violent extremism. This process currently relies on the judgment of professionals, who often assess risk with the guidance of structured professional judgment tools. However, thus far, little research focuses on the assessors themselves, and how human decision-making can affect the risk assessment process. This thesis adopts an empirical approach to examine the role of assessors, their perceptions of current practice, and whether biases and individual differences can affect the reliability of risk assessments. This thesis first examines practitioners’ perceptions of risk assessment tools, training, and practice through two survey studies with risk and threat assessment professionals. A quasi-experimental study then examines the relationship between assessor personality and risk judgments. This is followed by an experimental study which assesses biases in violent extremism risk assessment, and the impact of using a structured professional judgment tool. Further analyses also compare the inter-rater reliability and validity of different tools, and factors that can affect their application. The results of this research suggest that aspects of training, experience, human decision-making, and personality characteristics can affect several stages of the violent extremism risk assessment process. These findings highlight the importance of considering practitioners in any evaluation of risk assessment instruments and provide a starting point to mitigate against sources of unreliability and improve future practice.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | Assessing the assessors: human decision-making and reliability in violent extremism risk assessment and management |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, extremism, radicalisation, threat assessment, risk assessment |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10188189 |
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