Constant, Charles;
Bhattarai, Santosh;
Ziebart, Marek;
(2023)
Limitations of Current Practices in Uncooperative Space Surveillance: Analysis of Mega-Constellation Data Time-Series.
In:
Proceedings of the Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance (AMOS) Technologies Conference 2023.
Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS): Maui, Hawaii, USA.
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Abstract
In the context of Space Traffic Management (STM) and its crucial reliance on orbit prediction, this study evaluates current practices in uncooperative tracking for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mega-constellation management. By assessing Two-Line-Element (TLE) data from cooperative and uncooperative tracking of a Starlink constellation subset, we observe a mean 52% increase in positional accuracy with cooperative tracking. We present a 400-day time-series analysis of TLE data for the Starlink and OneWeb constellations, uncovering significant positional discrepancies and variance between cooperative and uncooperative TLE sets. A Fourier analysis reveals systematic once-per-rev signals. Examining the TLE generation process, we discuss the influence of measurement quality, force modeling, latency, and location on these discrepancies and their implications for prediction error. We advocate for a universally accepted set of reference orbits across LEO to ensure robust SSA data source characterization amid increasing satellite launches. The presence of inconsistencies and spatio-temporal variations in the data highlight the need for enhanced transparency and a 3- to 5-fold improvement in TLE data accuracy. This research, aims to bridge the gap between required and supplied accuracy of positional data, and to refine STM strategies and fortify mega-constellation operations safety in LEO. The facilitating codebase is available in a GitHub repository, encouraging scrutiny and contributions towards improved space situational awareness.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Limitations of Current Practices in Uncooperative Space Surveillance: Analysis of Mega-Constellation Data Time-Series |
| Event: | Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance (AMOS) Technologies Conference |
| Location: | Maui, Hawaii, USA |
| Dates: | 19 Sep 2023 - 22 Sep 2023 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://amostech.com/TechnicalPapers/2023/Poster/C... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mega-constellations, Low Earth Orbit, Space Traffic Management, Space Situational Awareness, Uncooperative Tracking, Two-Line-Element, Geodesy, Starlink, OneWeb, Accuracy, Precision |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187486 |
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