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Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries

Ciaffi, Giovanna; Deleidi, Matteo; Mazzucato, Mariana; (2024) Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries. Industrial and Corporate Change 10.1093/icc/dtae005. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

The paper aims to assess the macroeconomic impacts of government investment in Research and Development (R&D) and more generic fiscal policies by quantifying the Gross domestic product (GDP) and business R&D investment multipliers. Following the recent literature on fiscal policy, we combine the Local Projection approach with fiscal shocks estimated using Structural Vector Autoregressive modeling by focusing on a panel of 15 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the 1981–2017 period. Our findings support the idea that expansionary fiscal policies can positively and persistently affect the GDP level and crowd in business R&D investment. Additionally, our results show that public investment in R&D generates the largest multiplicative effect both on GDP and business R&D than the one associated with more generic public expenditures, even when fiscal expectations are considered.

Type: Article
Title: Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/icc/dtae005
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtae005
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author(s) 2024. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Social Sciences, Business, Economics, Management, Business & Economics, RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIERS, FISCAL MULTIPLIERS, MONETARY-POLICY, STATE CAPACITY, PROCUREMENT, CHALLENGES, COMPLEMENT, CRISIS, SHOCKS
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Inst for Innovation and Public Purpose
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10187123
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