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Trust and monetary policy

De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei; (2024) Trust and monetary policy. Journal of Forecasting 10.1002/for.3065. (In press). Green open access

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We analyze how trust affects the transmission of negative demand and supply shocks using a behavioral macroeconomic model. We define trust to have two dimensions: trust in the central bank's inflation target and trust in the central bank's capacity to stabilize the business cycle. We find, first, that when large negative shocks occur, the subsequent trajectories taken by output gap and inflation typically coalesce around a good and a bad trajectory. Second, these good and bad trajectories are correlated with movements in trust. In the bad trajectories, trust collapses, and in the good trajectories, it is not affected. This feature is stronger when a negative supply shock occurs than in the case of a negative demand shock. Third, initial conditions, in particular the initial state of inflation and output expectations, matter. Unfavorable initial expectations drive the economy into a bad trajectory, and favorable initial expectations produce good trajectories. Fourth, we analyze the sensitivity of our results with respect to the size of the shocks. Fifth, we derive implications of our results for our capacity of making forecasts about the effects of large demand and supply shocks.

Type: Article
Title: Trust and monetary policy
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/for.3065
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3065
Language: English
Additional information: © 2024 The Authors. Journal of Forecasting published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Keywords: behavioral macroeconomics, monetary policy, trust
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10186420
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