Mawhinney, Jamie A;
Mounsey, Craig A;
O'Brien, Alastair;
Sádaba, J Rafael;
Freemantle, Nick;
(2023)
Statistical primer: using prognostic models to predict the future: what cardiothoracic surgery can learn from Strictly Come Dancing.
European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery
, 64
(5)
, Article ezad385. 10.1093/ejcts/ezad385.
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Prognostic models are widely used across medicine and within cardiothoracic surgery, where predictive tools such as EuroSCORE are commonplace. Such models are a useful component of clinical assessment but may be misapplied. In this article, we demonstrate some of the major issues with risk scores by using the popular BBC television programme Strictly Come Dancing (known as Dancing with the Stars in many other countries) as an example. METHODS: We generated a multivariable prognostic model using data from the then-completed 19 series of Strictly Come Dancing to predict prospectively the results of the 20th series. RESULTS: The initial model based solely on demographic data was limited in its predictive value (0.25, 0.22; R2 and Spearman’s rank correlation, respectively) but was substantially improved following the introduction of early judges’ scores deemed representative of whether contestants could actually dance (0.40, 0.30). We then utilize our model to discuss the difficulties and pitfalls in using and interpreting prognostic models in cardiothoracic surgery and beyond, particularly where these do not adequately capture potentially important prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Researchers and clinicians alike should use prognostic models cautiously and not extrapolate conclusions from demographic data alone.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Statistical primer: using prognostic models to predict the future: what cardiothoracic surgery can learn from Strictly Come Dancing |
| Location: | Germany |
| DOI: | 10.1093/ejcts/ezad385 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ejcts/ezad385 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Prognostic models, Risk prediction, EuroSCORE, STS, Strictly Come Dancing, Cardiothoracic surgery |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Inst for Liver and Digestive Hlth |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10185839 |
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