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Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Colbourn, T; Janoušková, E; Li Lin, I; Collins, J; Connolly, E; Graham, M; Jewel, B; ... Hallett, TB; + view all (2023) Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study. Studies in Family Planning , 54 (4) pp. 585-607. 10.1111/sifp.12255. Green open access

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Abstract

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

Type: Article
Title: Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12255
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sifp.12255
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health > Infection and Population Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10184709
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