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Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries

Cheng, Danyang; Reiner, David M; Yang, Fan; Cui, Can; Meng, Jing; Shan, Yuli; Liu, Yunhui; ... Guan, Dabo; + view all (2023) Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries. Nature Communications , 14 , Article 8213. 10.1038/s41467-023-43660-x. Green open access

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Abstract

Achieving low-carbon development of the cement industry in the developing countries is fundamental to global emissions abatement, considering the local construction industry’s rapid growth. However, there is currently a lack of systematic and accurate accounting and projection of cement emissions in developing countries, which are characterized with lower basic economic country condition. Here, we provide bottom-up quantifications of emissions from global cement production and reveal a regional shift in the main contributors to global cement CO2 emissions. The study further explores cement emissions over 2020-2050 that correspond to different housing and infrastructure conditions and emissions mitigation options for all developing countries except China. We find that cement emissions in developing countries except China will reach 1.4-3.8 Gt in 2050 (depending on different industrialization trajectories), compared to their annual emissions of 0.7 Gt in 2018. The optimal combination of low-carbon measures could contribute to reducing annual emissions by around 65% in 2050 and cumulative emissions by around 48% over 2020-2050. The efficient technological paths towards a low carbon future of cement industry vary among the countries and infrastructure scenarios. Our results are essential to understanding future emissions patterns of the cement industry in the developing countries and can inform policies in the cement sector that contribute to meeting the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

Type: Article
Title: Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43660-x
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43660-x
Language: English
Additional information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10183823
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