Otarola, Kenneth; Iannacone, Leandro; Gentile, Roberto; Galasso, Carmine; (2023) Time-dependent fragility analysis of deteriorating structural systems under seismic sequences. In: Proceedings of Conference Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future (SECED 2023). Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): Cambridge, UK.

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Abstract

: Structural systems in seismic-prone areas often experience multiple ground motions throughout their service life, including mainshocks, aftershocks, and other earthquakes triggered by mainshocks on nearby fault segments. These successive ground motions can significantly damage a system’s structural and non-structural components, leading to significant earthquakeinduced losses. Despite this, the impact of pre-existing damage during ground-motion sequences is typically disregarded when assessing nonlinear structural performance. Moreover, deterioration mechanisms caused by environmental factors can worsen damage/losses due to ground-motion sequences over the system's service life; however, these combined effects are frequently overlooked. This paper proposes an end-to-end computational methodology to derive fragility relationships that account for the damage state achieved by a structural system during a prior ground motion while deteriorating due to chloride-induced corrosion. To this end, a vector-valued probabilistic seismic demand model is formulated to relate the maximum inter-storey drift of the first ground motion and the intensity measure of the second ground motion to the dissipated hysteretic energy during the entire ground-motion sequence for a given corrosion deterioration level. Furthermore, a vector-valued collapse generalised logistic model is developed to estimate the probability of collapse, conditioned on the same parameters as the probabilistic seismic demand model. Monte-Carlo simulation is then employed to model the time-dependent evolution of fragility relationships' parameters using an appropriate chloride-penetration model, capturing the continuous nature of the deterioration processes. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a case-study reinforced concrete building, revealing reductions of up to 33.3% in fragility median values due to deteriorating effects caused by the multi-hazard threat.

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