Otarola, Kenneth;
Iannacone, Leandro;
Gentile, Roberto;
Galasso, Carmine;
(2023)
Accounting for damage accumulation in multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis.
In:
Proceedings of Conference Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future (SECED 2023).
Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED): Cambridge, UK.
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Abstract
Most computational risk modelling frameworks for natural hazards do not adequately address multiple-hazard (or simply multi-hazard) interactions, which can result in inaccurate lifecycle consequence estimates. This can ultimately lead to ineffective decision-making for disastermitigation strategies and resilience-enhancing policies. To address this issue, probabilistic multihazard life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, and casualties over an asset’s service life) can be used for the life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. Nonetheless, most available formulations fail to account for damage accumulation effects due to incomplete repairs between hazard events. This paper introduces a Markovian framework to efficiently analyse multi-hazard LCCon due to deteriorating structural systems, accounting for complex interactions between hazards and their effects on structural performance. This framework can be used to test various risk management and adaptation pathways by modelling the probability of a system being at any performance level after multiple hazards and the associated repair actions. Expected LCCon estimates are obtained by combining the performance level distribution with suitable system-level consequence models. A case-study reinforced concrete building illustrates the proposed framework, considering earthquake-induced ground motions and environmentally-induced corrosion deterioration over its service life.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Accounting for damage accumulation in multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis |
| Event: | Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics (SECED) 2023 conference: Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future |
| Location: | Cambridge, United Kingdom |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2023-proc... |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author-accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. // © The Author(s), 2023. This article is shared under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial International Licence 4.0 (CC BY-NC 4.0). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10181128 |
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