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Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration on the Basis of Electoral System

Taagepera, R; Sikk, A; (2007) Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration on the Basis of Electoral System. In: (Proceedings) ECPR General Conference 2007. European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR): Pisa, Italy. Green open access

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Abstract

We join two existing logical models and tests the resulting predictions of mean cabinet duration (C). One of these models predicts C based on effective number of parties (N): C=k/N2 , where k is found to be around 42 years. The other predicts N on the basis of number of seats in the assembly (S) and district magnitude (M). The new combined model leads to a prediction for the mean cabinet duration in terms of these two institutional factors: C=42 years/(MS)1/3. Three quarters of the actual mean durations agree with the prediction within a factor of 2. For the purposes of institutional engineering, the model predicts that doubling the district magnitude would reduce the mean cabinet duration by 21 percent ceteris paribus.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration on the Basis of Electoral System
Event: ECPR General Conference 2007
Location: Pisa
Dates: 6 Sep 2007 - 8 Sep 2007
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://ecpr.eu/Events/59
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Causal model, electoral systems, party government, party systems
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10179792
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