Taagepera, R;
Sikk, A;
(2007)
Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration on the Basis of Electoral System.
In:
(Proceedings) ECPR General Conference 2007.
European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR): Pisa, Italy.
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Abstract
We join two existing logical models and tests the resulting predictions of mean cabinet duration (C). One of these models predicts C based on effective number of parties (N): C=k/N2 , where k is found to be around 42 years. The other predicts N on the basis of number of seats in the assembly (S) and district magnitude (M). The new combined model leads to a prediction for the mean cabinet duration in terms of these two institutional factors: C=42 years/(MS)1/3. Three quarters of the actual mean durations agree with the prediction within a factor of 2. For the purposes of institutional engineering, the model predicts that doubling the district magnitude would reduce the mean cabinet duration by 21 percent ceteris paribus.
| Type: | Proceedings paper |
|---|---|
| Title: | Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration on the Basis of Electoral System |
| Event: | ECPR General Conference 2007 |
| Location: | Pisa |
| Dates: | 6 Sep 2007 - 8 Sep 2007 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://ecpr.eu/Events/59 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Causal model, electoral systems, party government, party systems |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of Arts and Humanities |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10179792 |
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