Barazza, E;
Li, PH;
Strachan, N;
(2023)
Modelling governance for a successful electricity sector decarbonisation.
Energy Research and Social Science
, 104
, Article 103240. 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103240.
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Abstract
Early and deep electricity decarbonisation is critical to achieve the overall energy transition target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper extends an electricity agent based model to capture the inter-dependence of consistent governance with underpinning societal pressure and resultant investment strategies. Results show only with the strongest level of governance – reflected in the range of national/local policy mechanisms used, and their strength/timing when interim targets are met/missed – can near-zero electricity emissions be met well before 2050. Strong governance can also ensure a stable electricity system, with consistent policies mitigating the intensity of any investment cycles. Strong governance entails higher capital investments, but these can deliver lower electricity prices in the long-term. And strong governance means that a successful electricity decarbonisation does not need to be built solely on existing incumbents, but also via local cooperatives to aggregate household financing and demand side management. However, with inconsistent governance, a vicious cycle ensues with a weak rationale to enact ambitious policies at both the local and national levels, significant inertia in new electricity investments, and hence “failure” scenarios of decarbonisation. This challenges the prior findings of optimistic achievement of electricity decarbonisation scenarios by standard techno-economic optimisation models.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Modelling governance for a successful electricity sector decarbonisation |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103240 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103240 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Keywords: | Agent-based modelling, Electricity transition, Governance, Societal pressure, Policy stability, Virtuous cycles |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10176183 |
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