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Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes

Buckley, N; Marquardt, KL; Reuter, OJ; Tertytchnaya, K; (2023) Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes. American Political Science Review 10.1017/S0003055423000618. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

Being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. A growing body of scholarship therefore focuses on the factors that influence authoritarian popularity. However, it is possible that the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. We use framing experiments embedded in four surveys in Russia to examine this phenomenon. These experiments reveal that manipulating information - and thereby perceptions - about Russian President Vladimir Putin's popularity can significantly affect respondents' support for him. Additional analyses, which rely on a novel combination of framing and list experiments, indicate that these changes in support are not due to preference falsification, but are in fact genuine. This study has implications for research on support for authoritarian leaders and defection cascades in nondemocratic regimes.

Type: Article
Title: Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1017/S0003055423000618
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055423000618
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10175347
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