Owens, Lukas;
Gogebakan, Kemal Caglar;
Menon, Usha;
Gulati, Roman;
Weiss, Noel S;
Etzioni, Ruth;
(2023)
Short-term Endpoints for Cancer Screening Trials: Does Tumor Subtype Matter?
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention
, 32
(6)
pp. 741-743.
10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1307.
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Abstract
Multicancer early detection tests are precipitating a reexamination of potential short-term endpoints for cancer screening trials. A reduction in advanced stage incidence is a prime candidate, and stage-shift models that substitute early-stage for late-stage survival have been used to predict mortality reduction due to screening. However, standard stage-shift models often ignore prognostic subtypes, effectively implying that cancers detected early also have an associated subtype shift. To illustrate the differences between mortality predictions from stage-shift models that ignore versus preserve prognostic subtype, we use ovarian cancer partitioned by histologic subtype and prostate cancer partitioned by grade. We infer general conditions under which stage-shift models that preserve prognostic subtype are likely to predict mortality reductions that differ from those that ignore subtype and examine the implications for short-term endpoints based on stage in cancer screening trials.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Short-term Endpoints for Cancer Screening Trials: Does Tumor Subtype Matter? |
| Location: | United States |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1307 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1307 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Early Detection of Cancer, Female, Humans, Incidence, Male, Ovarian Neoplasms, Prognosis, Prostatic Neoplasms |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10173568 |
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