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Climate change impacts on hydro-generation and land suitability for agriculture in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar

Dessens, O; Anandarajah, G; Cronin, J; (2023) Climate change impacts on hydro-generation and land suitability for agriculture in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. In: Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change, ICUE 2022. (pp. p. 447086). IEEE: Pattaya, Thailand. Green open access

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Abstract

This paper quantifies and analyses the impacts of climate change on water availability for hydro generation and land suitability for key crops in three least developed countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region, namely, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The method used for the climate study is supported by the inter-sectoral model inter-comparison project (ISIMIP database). The recent ISIMIP input dataset, ISIMIP2b, outlines simulation scenarios divided into different emissions pathways (or 'Representative Concentration Pathways' known as RCPs). This paper focuses on the two extreme RCPs, specifically RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, which would result in global average temperature increases of approximately 1.6 and 4.3°C respectively. Th analysis concentrates on the difference between the historic period and the end of the century (toward 2100) for the climate conditions for the future. The fuzzy logic global land suitability model has been used to calculate the suitability of the land to support growing crops as well as to investigate how the climate changing could impact this. The analysis shows that quite significant changes in hydro-generation potential can occur depending on the region: Laos and Cambodia show decrease when Myanmar shows increase in output potential between present and RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Quite significant increases or decreases in land suitability can occur depending on the region and the crop.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Climate change impacts on hydro-generation and land suitability for agriculture in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar
Event: 2022 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE)
Dates: 26 Oct 2022 - 28 Oct 2022
ISBN-13: 9798350333268
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1109/ICUE55325.2022.10113519
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1109/ICUE55325.2022.10113519
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic, Climate change, Precipitation, Databases, Crops, Hydroelectric power generation, Production, Climate change
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10171088
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