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Prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease in a clinical trial and long-term observational cohort

Ghuman, Abeer; Khanna, Dinesh; Lin, Celia JF; Furst, Daniel E; Raghu, Ganesh; Martinez, Fernando J; Zucchetto, Mauro; ... Denton, Christopher P; + view all (2023) Prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease in a clinical trial and long-term observational cohort. Rheumatology 10.1093/rheumatology/kead234. (In press). Green open access

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Explore prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) outcomes in a phase 3 trial (focuSSced) and prognostic markers in a real-world cohort (SMART). METHODS: The focuSSced SSc-ILD subgroup included 68 of 106 placebo-treated and 68 of 104 tocilizumab-treated patients. The SMART cohort included 505 patients with SSc-ILD. Linear mixed-effect models were used to identify factors associated with change in forced vital capacity (FVC). Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression were used for time-to-event analyses. RESULTS: In placebo-treated focuSSced patients, sex was a significant prognostic factor for FVC decline; males had increased risk for absolute decline ≥10% in percent-predicted FVC (ppFVC) and 0.22% faster weekly FVC decline than females (P = 0.0001). FVC was 9.8% lower in patients with C-reactive protein >6 mg/ml versus those with C-reactive protein ≤6 mg/ml (P = 0.0059). Tocilizumab reduced the risk for ≥10% decline in ppFVC in patients who were male, had earlier disease (<2 years duration), had interleukin-6 levels <10 pg/ml, or had anti-topoisomerase antibodies (ATA). In the SMART cohort, prognostic factors for ppFVC <70% were male sex, ATA, and low baseline FVC. Males had 3.3% lower FVC 1 year after disease onset (P < 0.001) and 0.6% faster yearly decline (P = 0.03) than females. CONCLUSION: Prognostic markers in SSc-ILD were similar between focuSSced and SMART. Male sex and inflammatory markers were associated with lower FVC but interleukin-6 ≥ 10 pg/ml was not predictive of response to tocilizumab. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02453256.

Type: Article
Title: Prognostic and predictive markers of systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease in a clinical trial and long-term observational cohort
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/rheumatology/kead234
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1093/rheumatology/kead234
Language: English
Additional information: © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Keywords: Autoantigens and autoantibodies, biological therapies, biomarkers, cytokines and inflammatory mediators, interstitial lung disease, scleroderma and related disorders, systemic sclerosis
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Medicine > Inflammation
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10171050
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